"IMPACT BIAS"

“IMPACT BIAS”

A professor in Harvard’s department of psychology Daniel Gilbert and the psychologist Tim Wilson has taken the lead in studying a particular type of emotional and behavioral prediction. They call the difference between what we predict and what we finally experience the “impact bias”. We can see how people forecast their future and desire about something, but in real life it all changes or just stops being special and becomes ordinary. In my case, I thought I was going to find happiness coming to the United States and I also predicted that my first job was going to give me happiness and pleasure as well.

Daniel Gilbert and Tim Wilson explain how we falter when we visualize how we fell about something in the future. They call the difference between what we predict and what we finally experience the “impact bias”. How they explain “impact” meaning the errors we make in guessing both the intensity and duration of our emotions and “bias” meaning our propensity to err. According to this study almost all actions, for example, buying a new car or having children are based on our predictions of the emotional consequences of these events.

I imagined  I was going to find happiness coming to the United States. Like many people, I thought I would find more opportunities and better quality of life. When I arrived, I noticed that I was not completely happy as I thought. I miss my country, my family and friends. In consequence, what I expected for my life and what I finally experience affected my emotional state.

When I was 15 years old, I was eager to get a job. I thought that a job could give me freedom. But, when I finally got my first job, I noticed that it was not like I had imagined. For example, I didn’t get freedom, now that I had to obey other rules and be more responsible. That was frustrating for me, but helped me to understand that sometimes we err when we imagine how will feel about something in the future.

Impact bias is the difference between what we predict and what we ultimately experience. Sometimes we err when we imagine how we will feel about something in the future. Furthermore, our predictions affect our emotional states. Finally, it is important to wonder at the least if we are making mistakes when we thought about life choices and about happiness.